4.03.2020
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind-drifted snow
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently above sea level around 1700 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower where there is still enough new snow MODERATE, level 2. Especially dangerous are places with wind-drifted new snow, which due to the strong southwesterly are mainly on northern and eastern sides of ridges and saddles. On steeper slopes, smaller loose snow avalanches can be triggered, and already with minor snow cover loading, especially at places with drifted snow, slab avalanches can be triggered. Some avalanches can also release spontaneously from steeper slopes. Below sea level 1700 m on pronounced shady slopes, individual spontaneous wet snow avalanches are not excluded. On wind-exposed locations where new snow is scoured to the old base, there is danger of slips.
Snow conditions
The snowpack in the mountains is gradually accumulating. On Tuesday there was occasional snowfall, today precipitation has weakened. Another 10 to 40 cm of snow has fallen. Since Monday morning, the snowpack above around 1600 m has thickened by 50 to 100 cm! In the eastern part of Kamnik-Savinja Alps, eastern Karawanks and Pohorje however much less, mostly 5 to 30 cm. Snow is light and soft and above around 1700 m dry, lower it initially fell wet snow, yesterday during the day with cooling a few centimeters of dry snow fell. The snowpack there has partially refrozen. There are many drifts, new cornices have formed. Wind-exposed ridges are heavily scoured, especially there snow is hard and icy.
Forecast weather development
Today initially cloudy and foggy, light snowfall will cease everywhere by forenoon. In the afternoon it will clear, first in the area of western Julijcev. Weak to moderate northerly wind will blow, weakening in the afternoon. Temperature at 1500 m around -2, at 2500 m around -10 °C. Thursday initially mostly clear, only on Bovškem there may be some cloudiness already in the morning. Elsewhere it will begin to cloud over from the west in the forenoon and summits will occasionally be in clouds. Eastern Karawanks and Pohorje will be in partly sunny weather for most of the day. Initially weak southwesterly, which will strengthen somewhat in the afternoon. Temperature at 1500 m around -1 midday, at 2500 m around -5 °C. In the night to Friday snowfall will cover all mountains, it will snow to valleys. Precipitation will weaken on Friday during the day. More precipitation will fall in the area of Julijskih Alp. Moderate to strong southerly to southwesterly wind will blow. Wind will weaken Friday forenoon and turn to northeasterly direction. Midday at 1500 m around 0, at 2500 m around -6 °C.
Trend of snow conditions
Due to larger quantity of new snow, avalanche danger above sea level around 1700 m will remain CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower MODERATE level 2. From steep slopes dry snow avalanches can still spontaneously release, especially on northern slopes under smaller loading slab avalanches can also be triggered. Increased danger especially in the area of western and southern Julijcev, where there is more new snow. On Friday avalanche danger due to new snowfall and windy weather will INCREASE.
Next publication: Saturday, 7. 3. 2020
Source: ARSO