4.04.2018
General danger level - Wednesday, 4. 4. 2018
Danger is 3rd degree on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wet snow, new snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is above sea level around 1500 m mostly CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree. Lower down, due to smaller amounts of snow and already more transformed snow, danger is MODERATE, 2nd degree. Main danger below sea level around 1700 m is softened snow due to positive temperatures and rain, especially on sun-exposed slopes saturated to the ground. Higher up slabs can release primarily snow that fell at the end of the previous week and there is disproportionately more of it in the Julian Alps than elsewhere. Slabs can release on a weak layer or on the surface of the old snow cover. Steep slopes and wind-drifted snow are particularly dangerous. Lower down we also expect slab avalanches.
Snow conditions
Snow cover is above around 1800 m hard or refrozen, lower down wet and in places also softened and saturated to the ground. There is a lot of wind-drifted snow from the last snowfall. Conditions are changing especially in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks due to precipitation.
Forecast weather development
Today in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje moderately to mostly cloudy. Elsewhere cloudy and also foggy. Especially in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks occasional precipitation with snow line between 1400 and 1800 m above sea level. Strong southwesterly will blow. Tomorrow everywhere cloudy and often foggy. Precipitation will spread eastward during the day. Snow line will initially be similarly high as today, during the day it will drop slightly. Wind will weaken, in the afternoon turn northward and strengthen slightly again. On Friday mostly clear, in the eastern part of our mountains occasionally more cloudy.
Tendency of snow conditions
Due to new precipitation avalanche conditions will change today in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, where above around 1800 m up to around 20 cm of snow will fall. Lower down rain will wet the snow cover and snow will also settle. Tomorrow in the mountains another around 10 cm of snow will fall, locally possibly more. It will cool slightly. From Friday to Sunday more sunny, so snow will especially on sun-exposed aspects soften during the day, refreeze at night. Therefore in the morning snow cover especially below around 1800 m can be hard and icy, during the day it will soften due to the influence of the sun and destabilize on sun-exposed slopes. Avalanche danger will remain CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree until Friday, then more pronounced daily cycle.
Next issue: Saturday, 7. 4. 2018
Source: ARSO