4.05.2020
Danger level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: favourable conditions, wet snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is initially LOW everywhere. During the day, however, it increases on sun-exposed slopes above about 1900 m to MODERATE, level 2. Below about 1900 m there is little new snow, so danger there is mostly LOW.
Snow conditions
On Friday and Saturday there were showers, snow line mostly above 1800 m, occasionally also lower. In the high mountains 5 to 30 cm of snow fell. Most precipitation was in the western Julian Alps. Sunday was dry, windy and partly sunny. Due to relatively cold weather, snow remained dry in shaded areas, on sun-exposed areas it softened and settled during the day. A crust formed. On Sunday morning a strong north wind was blowing, which in places built wind slabs and cornices. The snowpack froze overnight today, hence increased gliding risk.
Forecast weather development
Today mostly clear, during the day cloudiness will increase from the north, higher peaks may be occasionally in clouds in the afternoon. Weak wind from western directions will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 7, at 2500 m around 0 °C. Tuesday mostly cloudy, peaks in clouds. Especially midday and afternoon occasional light precipitation. Snow line between 1700 and 2000 m above sea level. Weak to moderate northwesterly will blow. Temperature at 1500 m in the eastern part of our mountains around 4, elsewhere up to 8, at 2500 m around 1 °C. Wednesday morning clearing. North wind will start blowing, it will cool down. During the day it will warm up again. Midday at 1500 m around 7, at 2500 m around -1 °C. Thursday and Friday continued dry and quite sunny weather. It will warm up. 0 °C isotherm will be above our highest peaks.
Tendency of snow conditions
Snow will soften today during the day, except on the most sun-exposed areas. New snow in the high mountains will mostly remain dry in many places. Tomorrow it will warm up slightly, so daytime avalanche danger will be MODERATE, level 2. Little new snow, just a centimetre in places, so it will not significantly affect snow conditions. On Wednesday snow will freeze everywhere in the morning, during the day with sunny weather avalanche danger will increase again on pronounced sun slopes. Thursday and Friday with warming typical spring conditions. Still mainly in the morning and forenoon snow will freeze, hence increased gliding risk.
Next issue: Friday, 8. 5. 2020
Source: ARSO