5.01.2021
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind-drifted snow, weak layers, new snow
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mainly in the high mountains of the Julian Alps above about 1300 m altitude HIGH, level 4, lower down and elsewhere in our mountains above about 1500 m CONSIDERABLE, level 3. Steeper slopes and places with wind-drifted snow and gullies where snow has accumulated are particularly dangerous. There, individual medium-sized and large avalanches of new, poorly bonded snow, as well as slab avalanches, can release from steep slopes. An avalanche can also be triggered by a small load on the snow cover already on medium-steep slopes with wind-drifted snow.
Snow conditions
After abundant snowfall, dry weather prevailed on Sunday. Due to the unstable snow cover, numerous dry avalanches occurred, below about 1400 m altitude also wet snow avalanches. The 0°C isotherm was at about 1400 m altitude. Below this altitude, the new snow became wet, on steep grassy slopes ground gliding avalanches occurred. Above 1500 m, the snow cover did not change significantly. The snow is soft and light, beneath it there is still poorly transformed and mostly soft snow cover. There are many drifts and slabs, wind-exposed locations are heavily scoured. Today it has cooled slightly, the snow cover has frozen up to about 1100 m altitude. Light snowfall has started again.
Forecast weather development
Today cloudy and foggy, occasional light snowfall. Mostly 5 to 10 cm dry snow will fall. Weak southerly to southeasterly wind blowing. Temperature at 1500 m -4, at 2500 m -9°C. Tuesday mostly cloudy and partly foggy, in the afternoon possible some sunshine. Mostly weak southerly to southwesterly wind. 0°C isotherm at about 1000 m altitude. Tuesday night to Wednesday snowfall again. Expected about 10 cm snow. In high mountains moderate southerly wind, lower down relatively weak wind. Wednesday daytime still mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional snow showers. Weak to moderate southwesterly. Slightly cooler, at 1500 m around -5, at 2500 m around -12°C. Thursday and Friday no precipitation, clouds breaking up. Cold.
Trend in snow conditions
The snow cover will settle and transform only slowly, snow will remain dry and soft. Locally, due to new snow, the danger of avalanche release may increase. No stronger wind, on eastern and northern sides of ridges and saddles mainly small drifts forming in high mountains. Avalanche danger will decrease only slowly. Conditions in the mountains are demanding and dangerous.
Next publication: Friday, 8. 1. 2021
Source: ARSO