5.01.2022
General danger level - Wednesday, 5. 1. 2022
Danger is 3rd degree on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind drifted snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently mostly LOW, 1st degree, but will INCREASE today during snowfall. New snow will fall on hard base, so there will be a weak layer in the snowpack, north wind will transport snow into wind slabs.
Snow conditions
In the high mountains the snow cover is hard and partly icy, only in frost pockets in shade is snow possibly soft in places. Snow line was this morning at about 2000 m a.s.l. Lower down snow was wet. Snow cover is mostly stable before new precipitation, some hard crusts. In western and southern Julian Alps above about 1800 m up to 15 cm snow has already fallen. Today during the day snow and avalanche conditions will change rapidly.
Forecast weather development
Today cloudy and foggy. Precipitation will gradually spread over northern Slovenia and midday and afternoon over the whole country. Snow line will start descending in the afternoon and evening and night it will snow also in lowlands in interior of Slovenia. By Thursday morning precipitation will cease. Most snow expected in Julian Alps, especially western and southern part, in high mountains possibly more than 50 cm! In Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps new snow 20 to 40 cm, further east 20 to 30 cm. Strong north wind will drift snow heavily. Significant cooling. Thursday afternoon partly clearing, temperature in mountains below zero. Moderate to strong north wind blowing. Friday mostly clear and cold, wind weak.
Trend in snow conditions
Today avalanche conditions will deteriorate RAPIDLY! New snow dry in high mountains, base hard so weak layer under new snow. Strong north wind will drift snow into slabs, extensive areas of wind drifted snow forming. Wind-exposed locations may be fully scoured to old icy base. Below about 1700 m snow initially wet, snowing on wet snow base, in mid-mountains partly on bare ground. There connection between old and new snow better, but with cooling new snow becoming drier, so also lower with strong wind crusts forming. Avalanche danger will INCREASE and expected CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree. If more than 70 cm snow falls in western Julian Alps, avalanche danger there one degree higher. From steeper slopes dry loose snow avalanches releasing, above about 1700 m possibly spontaneous slab avalanches. Slab avalanche can release already on small snow load. On wind-exposed locations glide risk. Conditions extremely demanding and dangerous. Below about 1700 m avalanche possibility smaller, especially for new snow, but today afternoon and tomorrow also lower wind drifted snow areas forming, so also on areas with drifted snow slab avalanche possible on minor snow load.
Next issue: Friday, 7. 1. 2022
Source: ARSO