5.01.2023
General avalanche danger level - Thursday, 5.1.2023
Danger is level 1 on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: weak layers, new snow, wind-blown snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / thawing after frost
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mostly LOW, level 1. The snowpack has stabilized quite well in recent days with thaws and coolings, so it is mostly stable. Slightly greater caution is needed in the high mountains, especially on northeast and east aspects where there is wind-blown snow; a small slab avalanche can be triggered only with significant loading. Particularly on north slopes, weak layers may be present in the snowpack; due to warm weather, some layer may release.
Snow conditions
In the mid-mountains, snow is wet, the snowpack is settling and melting, with little snow. Higher up, snow can freeze despite positive temperatures on clear nights, but softens during the day. Conditions are quite variable; in cold spots snow can be crusty and hard, elsewhere softened and even soft during the day, as it is not transformed in depth. Ridges are wind-scoured, and in places in the high mountains even icy.
Forecast weather development
Today in the high mountains it will be moderately, occasionally mostly cloudy, but the cloud base will be above the summits. In the mid-mountains, it will be mostly cloudy and foggy in the western and southern Julian Alps and in the hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska. A moderate west wind will blow, turning to northwest in the afternoon. The freezing level will be at about 2500 m above sea level. Tomorrow it will be mostly clear, with some high clouds at times. In the afternoon, clouds will start to build along the ridges of the southern and western Julian Alps. Wind will be light in the morning, strengthening to southwest during the day. The freezing level will be at the height of the highest summits. On Saturday, the western and southern Julian Alps will be mostly cloudy and especially foggy in the mid-mountains, with the cloud top rising towards evening. Elsewhere partly clear with considerable high clouds. A strengthening southwest wind will blow. On Sunday, mostly cloudy and foggy in places. In the western part of our mountains, occasional light precipitation, strengthening in the afternoon. Snow line between 1200 and 1500 m above sea level. Strong southwest wind. In the night to Monday, precipitation will spread eastwards; on Monday cloudy and foggy with precipitation. Snow line similar to Sunday.
Trend in snow conditions
Snow and avalanche conditions will not change much until Sunday. Lower down, snow will melt; higher up, it will slowly transform. On Sunday, new snow will start accumulating in the Julian Alps, but only in the night to Monday and on Monday daytime will more fall. In the western part of our mountains, we expect 30 to about 60 cm of new snow by Tuesday morning, further east 20 to max 40 cm. Southwest wind will transport new snow into drifts. Avalanche danger will mainly INCREASE above about 1700 m above sea level due to new snow and drifts; lower down snow will be wetter, and there is also considerably less old snow.
Next issue: Friday, 6.1.2023
Source: ARSO