5.02.2016
AVALANCHE RISK ASSESSMENT
Avalanche danger is mainly in the high mountains of the Julian Alps and western Karawanks level 2, elsewhere level 1. Especially on wind-exposed slopes there is a risk of gliding.
On Wednesday and overnight to Thursday it snowed in the mountains. In the Julian Alps and western Karawanks 20 to over 30 cm of snow fell, in the mid-mountains and elsewhere in our mountains 5 to about 20 cm. In the high mountains the snow was dry and bonded poorly to the hard base, lower it was initially wet, so the bond between base and new snow is better. A strong north wind blew, forming wind slabs on southern sides of ridges and passes. On wind-exposed slopes the new snow is in places completely wind-scoured. New snow is only conditionally stable. With minor additional loading on sufficiently steep slopes in high mountains and on drifted snow areas avalanches can be triggered.
SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT SNOWPACK STATE
The snowpack is currently mostly dry and loose, only on wind-exposed slopes covered with a thin crust, similarly on sun-exposed slopes especially in mid-mountains. On scoured spots the snow is hard and icy.
Snow in the mountains is still scarce. In high Julian Alps up to about 110 cm, elsewhere up to about 50 cm. Snowpack extends below 1000 m a.s.l., but lower mostly less than 10 cm snow.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
Tomorrow mostly clear. During the day cloudiness will increase mainly in hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska, and foothills of western Julian Alps. In high mountains mostly no cloud caps expected yet. Southwest wind will start blowing, transporting snow and forming new slabs. Freezing level will rise to about 2500 m by evening, on northwest remain below 1600 m.
Sunday cloudy and foggy, slightly colder. Mainly in Julian Alps and hills of northern Primorska precipitation. Snow line between 800 and 1200 m a.s.l. Strong southwest wind. Monday cloudy. Precipitation occasionally in Kamnik-Savinja Alps and western Karawanks, further east mostly not reaching. Snow line will rise further to 1000-1400 m a.s.l. Mainly in Julian Alps and western Karawanks up to 50-100 cm snow possible by Tuesday morning, elsewhere less, east none.
SNOW CONDITIONS TREND
Tomorrow snow on sun slopes will settle during day, freeze evening and night, surface crust will strengthen. In shade snow remains dry. Surface snow layer will slowly metamorphose and settle somewhat, in lower elevations it will melt. Avalanche conditions unchanged.
Sunday in Julian Alps and western Karawanks with new snow avalanche danger will increase, even more Monday when expected to rise to level 4 in Julian Alps and western Karawanks. Elsewhere less new snow. Southwest wind forming slabs. Thus Monday advise against mountain visits, except eastern Karawanks and eastern Kamnik-Savinja Alps.
Next report TUESDAY, 9.2.2016 morning, if needed updated Saturday, 6.2.2016.
Source: ARSO