5.02.2021
The danger level is 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wet snow, weak layers
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is above sea level around 1500 m CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level, lower down mostly MODERATE, 2nd level. Steep grassy slopes and gullies are particularly dangerous, where wet snow avalanches and gliding avalanches can release spontaneously. Above the treeline, weak layers are present in the snowpack, where slab avalanches can be triggered even with minor loading. In higher parts of the high mountains, there are also areas of windblown dry snow that is poorly bonded to the substrate.
Snow conditions
In recent days, most of the mountains have also been under the influence of thaw. In the hills, it occasionally drizzles lightly, but in the high mountains on Thursday a few centimetres of snow fell, which was transported by strong westerly winds. The zero isotherm is around 2000 m. Below the treeline, snow remains wet even at night and settles and melts faster, slightly higher up due to the influence of the sun, cloud cover and nocturnal cooling, the snowpack becomes wet during the day and freezes at night. The crust is strengthening, wind-exposed spots are also scoured and icy in many places. In the high mountains, the snowpack is drier, but there too, due to the sun's influence on southerly aspects, the snow softens and settles. The snowpack is crusty due to wind and sun influence and locally very variable.
Forecast weather development
Today above around 2200 m in the high mountains it will be partly clear, some clearing also in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje. Elsewhere cloudy and foggy. Especially in the western and southern mountain groups, there will be occasional drizzle or light rain. Moderate westerly to southwesterly winds will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 3, at 2500 m around 0 °C. On Saturday above around 1900 m in the high mountains and in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje partly clear. Elsewhere cloudy and foggy. On the southern foothills of the Julians and in the Notranjska hills occasional drizzle or light rain. Moderate to strong southwesterly wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around 4, at 2500 m around 1 °C. On Sunday cloudy and foggy. Precipitation will already appear in the morning in the Julian Alps area and spread to most mountain groups by afternoon. The snow line will initially be at sea level around 2100 m, in the afternoon it will start to descend. Strong winds from southern directions will blow. At 1500 m around 4, at 2500 m around -2 °C. On Monday it will remain changeable with occasional precipitation, the snow line at sea level around 1000 m, in the north even lower. The wind will weaken. At 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -7 °C.
Trend in snow conditions
Snow conditions will change further due to the continuation of the thaw. Below sea level around 2000 m, spontaneous wet snow avalanches and gliding avalanches will occur. Dangerous conditions are expected especially on Sunday, when with a high snow line it will rain more heavily. Medium to large wet snow avalanches can release, collapses of some cornices are also possible. Larger snow avalanches can reach alpine valleys. In higher parts of the high mountains it will snow, 30 to 60 cm of snow can fall, transported by strong southerly winds. Avalanche release danger will thus INCREASE everywhere and be in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks HIGH, 4th level, in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps and eastern Karawanks CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level. On Monday, avalanche release danger is expected to decrease.
Next issue: Monday, 8. 2. 2021
Source: ARSO