5.05.2021
The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problems: wind slab, wet snow, new snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently above about 1700 m elevation MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. Newer snow has mostly already avalanched. Particularly dangerous are steep south-facing slopes, where during sunny weather individual wet snow avalanches can release during the day. Especially around ridges and summits and in gullies there are slabs that can release with minor loading. Wind-exposed areas are scoured to hard and partly icy base, therefore in the high mountains above about 2000 m there is a risk of sliding falls.
Snow conditions
After snowfall at the beginning of the week it first cooled strongly, but the next day it warmed up again, today the snow line is already around 2000 m above sea level. New snow has settled considerably, only in shady high-mountain locations it is poorly transformed and partly still dry or frozen. Lower down it is soft and wet, in the morning crusty. In the high mountains there are many slabs, ridges are hard and icy. Lower down the snow is wet.
Forecast weather development
The weather will be quite changeable in the coming days. Today it will be dry until evening, only in the western part of the Julian Alps there will already be minor precipitation. There it will be cloudy and foggy, elsewhere there will still be some sun mainly in the morning. A strong southwesterly will blow. In the evening, precipitation will cover most of Slovenia from the north, the snow line will quickly drop below 1000 m elevation. Tomorrow it will initially be cloudy and partly foggy, in the morning and partly in the forenoon light snowfall is still possible in the mountains. In the afternoon the clouds will break. The wind will be light southerly, the snow line will be around 1300 m elevation in the morning, but in the afternoon the zero isotherm will rise quickly. On Friday it will initially be partly sunny, during the day the hills will be covered in clouds. In the afternoon precipitation will start from the north and spread south by night. The snow line will initially be around 2100 m, but will quickly drop below 1200 m, it will cool quickly again. A strengthened southwesterly will blow. At the end of the week it will be fairly sunny and quickly warmer again.
Trend in snow conditions
Due to occasional precipitation, snow conditions will change from day to day. New snow will probably bond well with the base, so no major spontaneous avalanches are expected. The southwesterly will build wind slabs and cornices. Until Friday inclusive there will not be much sun, so it will not significantly affect avalanche conditions. Due to rapid and noticeable temperature changes, new snow will settle relatively quickly, only in the high mountains above about 1900 m it will accumulate and remain mostly dry and soft. Lower down it will be everything from wet and soft to crusty and frozen. In general, the danger will gradually INCREASE. Especially at the end of the week, with renewed pronounced warming, wet snow avalanches will release again and the snowpack will destabilize on the sun during the day, new snow will get wet and settle quickly.
Next issue: Friday, 7.5.2021
Source: ARSO