Snow conditions 5. 1. 2024

General avalanche danger level - Friday, 5. 1. 2024
The danger is level 2 on the European 5-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger pattern: Cold, clear weather, fresh snow poorly bonded with wind

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger in the high mountains, above about 1800 m a.s.l., is MODERATE, level 2, elsewhere mostly LOW, level 1. Steep slopes in the high mountains are particularly dangerous, where the top layer of snow is not well bonded to the hard base, and in addition, due to past strong southwesterlies, there are quite a few wind slabs. There are locally thin unstable layers of surface hoar or facets in the snowpack. In the mid-mountains there is less snow, it was also wetter and bonded better to the base, so the danger there is much lower.

Snow conditions
The consolidated snowpack starts on southern slopes at about 1500 m a.s.l., on northern slopes a few hundred meters lower. Thicker snowpack is above about 1800 m. Due to past wind conditions, the snow is quite wind-scoured especially on northern slopes and exposed locations, there is a lot of sastrugi. The surface is quite varied, from crust to hard snow, only in sheltered shady spots is there some softer snow.

Forecast weather development
Today, Friday morning, it will quickly become cloudy, summits will be shrouded in fog. Already by midday, local precipitation will start, not reaching the eastern Karawanks and Pohorje. The snow line will be at about 1500 m a.s.l., in alpine valleys of northwestern Slovenia even lower. Moderate winds will blow, in high mountains possibly strong southerly to southwesterly. Temperature at 1500 m around 1, at 2500 m around -5 °C. On Saturday cloudy and foggy with precipitation, more abundant in the Julian Alps area, somewhat less in the Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps. The snow line in the morning at about 1600 m a.s.l., in the area of eastern Julian Alps and western Karawanks lower. Weak to moderate southerly winds, turning northwesterly in the afternoon. It will cool. On Sunday cloudy and still quite foggy. Snowfall will weaken and in western ridges also stop. Strong northerly winds will blow. In total, 40 to 60 cm of snow will fall in the high mountains of the Western and Central Julian Alps, elsewhere and in mid-mountains 20 to 40 cm. It will be cold. On Monday mostly cloudy, windy and cold.

Trend in snow conditions
In the mountains, weather and avalanche conditions will become very unfavorable and dangerous by the end of the week. The avalanche danger will DISTINCTLY INCREASE due to abundant snowfall on Saturday mainly in the high mountains, where the snow will be dry and weak layers are present in the snowpack or snow will fall on hard, icy base. We expect widespread spontaneous sloughing of sastrugi and poorly bonded snow from steep slopes and in gullies. On Sunday strong northerlies will blow, building new slabs on the southern sides of ridges and saddles. In the coming week, avalanche conditions will not change much due to cold weather. New snow will remain dry and soft, wind will transport it into wind slabs.

Next issue: Monday, 8. 1. 2024

Source: ARSO