Snow conditions 5. 4. 2024

General danger level - Friday, 5. 4. 2024
The danger is 2nd degree on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: drifted snow, wet snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is MODERATE, 2nd degree. On higher summits the snowpack is unstable mainly in drifts formed during snowfall with south and west winds. There a slab avalanche can be triggered with greater load. Below approx. 2400 m the recent rainfall has stabilised the snowpack. Danger will increase during the day due to daytime thaw, on sun-exposed aspects wet snow avalanches may release. Danger will increase day by day until Sunday due to pronounced thaw!

Snow conditions
Recent rainfall has stabilised snowpack below approx. 2400 m. Today it has already warmed up considerably at altitude, snow has refrozen only in high mountains. During daytime thaw due to sun and high temperatures snow will settle, snowpack will gradually soften and become soaked to the ground. Probability of wet loose snow avalanches, as well as glide slab avalanches and cornice falls will increase. Due to desert dust content on surface and upper layers snow, especially on sun-exposed slopes, softens faster than usual for this time. On highest summits snow is less stable in drifts where slab avalanche can be triggered on load.

Forecast weather development
Exceptionally warm weekend for this time of year ahead. Today, Friday, sunny with occasional increased cumulus cloudiness. In western and southern Julian Alps may be cloudy and foggy below sea level approx. 2000 m. Weak westerly winds blowing. Temperature at 1500 m around 10 °C, at 2500 m around 4 °C. 0°C isotherm will rise to 3000 m during Friday. Saturday mostly clear, midday and afternoon cumulus cloudiness possible esp. in Julian Alps. During day weak westerly and northerly winds. Temperature at 1500 m around 15 °C, at 2500 m around 9 °C. Sunday sunny and very warm. 0°C isotherm will rise to 4000 m by Sunday. From Sunday afternoon air will contain some desert dust, more on Monday and Tuesday, visibility reduced. Monday continued sunny and very warm weather.

Trend in snow conditions
With pronounced dry warming danger will increase most on sun-exposed slopes where during day due to sun snow will settle up to highest summits. There esp. on steep slopes wet loose snow avalanches may release. Snowpack surface softening will be somewhat faster due to high desert dust content than usual with pure white snow. At night due to low air humidity despite high temperature crust may still form on snowpack surface, but thinner each night with rising air temperature. Thus snowpack will soften and become unstable earlier each morning. Probability of unpredictable glide slab releases and cornice falls will also increase.

Next bulletin: Monday, 8. 4. 2024

Source: ARSO