6.01.2021
Danger level is 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind-blown snow, weak layers, new snow
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is above about 1400 m altitude CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2. Especially steeper slopes and places with wind-blown snow and gullies where snow has accumulated are dangerous. There, even with minor loading, individual avalanches of new, poorly bonded snow can release from steep slopes, as well as slab avalanches. In the high mountains, where it snowed on a hard base, individual avalanches of dry and poorly bonded snow may release spontaneously today.
Snow conditions
After slight warming and partial clearing at the start of the week, snow especially below about 1600 m altitude began to transform and settle. Higher up, the influence of warmer weather did not reach, conditions there were similar to previous days. In the mountains it is gradually cooling, wet snow even in the mid-mountains has started to freeze. Yesterday evening and tonight it snowed again. Mostly 10 to 25 cm of dry snow fell. The zero isotherm dropped below about 700 m altitude. During snowfall, a light to moderate wind from southwest to southeast directions blew, which transported snow at exposed locations and built snow deposits on northern slopes. New snow has covered older cracks and slabs, making avalanche danger hard to recognize. Above about 1400 m altitude there is still considerable poorly bonded snow, especially in the high mountains. There are many wind slabs and slabs, wind-exposed locations are heavily scoured. Weak layers are present in the snowpack. Lower down, conditions due to cooling are more favorable, but the snow cover especially on steep grassy slopes can still be unstable.
Expected weather development
Today mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional snow showers. Up to 5 to 10 cm of dry snow may fall. Light to moderate southwest wind will blow. Temperature at 1500 m -5, at 2500 m -11°C. On Thursday partly clear, in Notranjski hribi and on slopes of southern Julijci mostly cloudy or foggy. Light wind from western directions. Temperature at 1500 m -5, at 2500 m -12°C. On Friday clouding over, foggy in places. Light snow will start, less precipitation in Western Julijci. Light to moderate east wind will blow. Zero isotherm below 600 m altitude. On Saturday clearing, on Sunday cloudiness increasing. East wind will strengthen somewhat. It will be cold. Temperature around -10°C.
Trend in snow conditions
The snowpack will settle and transform only slowly, snow will remain dry and soft due to cold weather. Cold weather may weaken the cohesion of the snowpack. At exposed locations - especially on the primorski side of the mountains - strengthened east winds will blow, transporting new light snow and building new slabs. Avalanche danger thus above about 1500 m remains CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2.
Next issue: Friday, 8.1.2021
Source: ARSO