6.01.2022
General danger level - Thursday, 6 January 2022
Danger is 3rd level on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind slab
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger in the high mountains of the western Julian Alps above about 1800 m is HIGH, 4th level. Elsewhere it is mostly CONSIDERABLE, 3rd level, below about 1200 m MODERATE, 2nd level. Steeper slopes are dangerous, where we expect spontaneous release of numerous small, and also medium-sized dry loose snow avalanches, which will be more frequent in the high mountains of the western Julian Alps. Many couloirs are also dangerous. Initially, when the snow was somewhat more southern, a strong south to southwest wind blew, upon cooling then northerly. A loose snow avalanche can be triggered on sufficiently steep slopes already with minor snow cover loading. Wind-exposed locations are heavily wind-packed, even to the old, partially icy base, therefore slip hazard there.
Snow conditions
The snowpack after snowfall is soft and powdery. Most snow fell in the western part of the Julian Alps, from 30 to about 100 cm, depending mainly on elevation. Elsewhere in the hills and mountains new snow from 20 to about 50 cm, on Pohorje and in the eastern Karawanks even less. Above about 1800 m there is a pronounced weak layer under the new snow, lower it is less pronounced. Snow is heavily wind drifted, there are many cornices and completely scoured areas where the surface is hard and icy.
Forecast weather development
Today initially cloudy, in the afternoon partly clearing, temperature in mountains below zero. Moderate to strong northerly wind blowing. Friday mostly clear and cold, wind weak. Saturday mostly clear and cold. Weak to moderate wind from northern directions blowing.
Tendency of snow conditions
Avalanche conditions will not change much in the coming days due to cold and partly windy weather. Today the strengthened northerly will still form cornices, in the following days wind weaker and snow transport by wind much less. Conditions will be potentially dangerous, as there will be many loose slabs that can especially in high mountains trigger quickly already under minor loading, also spontaneous loose slab avalanches from sufficiently steep slopes possible. Below about 1400 m the risk nevertheless smaller. Snow will hardly settle and metamorphose until the start of next week.
Next issue: Friday, 7 January 2022
Source: ARSO