6.01.2023
General danger level - Friday, 6. 1. 2023
The danger is level 1 on the European 5-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: weak layers, wind slab
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mostly LOW, level 1. The snowpack has stabilized well over the past days with warmings and coolings, so it is mostly stable. Slightly more caution is needed in the high mountains, especially on northeast and east aspects where there is wind-blown snow; a small slab avalanche can only be triggered with significant additional load. Particularly on north slopes, weak layers may be present in the snowpack; due to warm weather, some layer may release.
Snow conditions
In the mid-mountains, snow is wet, the snowpack is settling and melting, with little snow. Higher up, snow refreezes at night despite positive temperatures, but softens during the day. Thus, conditions are quite variable; in cold hollows, snow can be crusty and hard, elsewhere softened and even soft during the day, as it is not transformed in depth. Ridges are wind-scoured, and in places in the high mountains also icy.
Forecast weather development
Today mostly clear, with occasional stratocumulus clouds. Southwesterly wind will strengthen during the day. Zero degree isotherm at the height of the highest peaks. On Saturday, in the western and southern Julian Alps mostly cloudy and especially in mid-mountains foggy, towards evening the cloud top will rise. Elsewhere partly clear with considerable stratocumulus. Strong southwesterly wind. On Sunday mostly cloudy and locally foggy. In the western part of our mountains occasional light precipitation, which will intensify in the afternoon. Snow line between 1400 and 1800 m a.s.l. Strong southwesterly wind. On Monday night, precipitation will spread eastwards; on Monday cloudy and foggy with abundant precipitation. Snow line initially similar to Sunday, but in the afternoon dropping below 1000 m a.s.l. Initially strong southerly to southwesterly wind, turning to northerly in the afternoon. Colder.
Trend in snow conditions
Snow and avalanche conditions will not change much until Sunday. Lower down, snow will melt; higher up, it will slowly transform. On Sunday, new snow will start accumulating in the Julian Alps, but only on Monday night and during Monday daytime will more fall. Currently, abundant snowfall is expected. In the high Julian Alps, 50 to 100 cm of snow is expected, most of it in 24 hours! In the high Kamnik-Savinja Alps and Karawanks, 30 to 60 cm. In mid-mountains, significantly less new snow, as the snow line will initially be quite high. Southwesterly wind will transport new snow into drifts. Avalanche danger will mainly above about 1700 m a.s.l. INCREASE due to new snow and drifts; lower down, snow will be more wet, and there is also considerably less old snow.
Next bulletin: Monday, 9. 1. 2023
Source: ARSO