7.02.2019
Danger is level 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, weak layers
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger assessment
Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, in mountains above about 1400 m elevation, MODERATE, level 2, lower down. Particularly dangerous are areas with windpacked snow on steeper slopes, where an avalanche can be triggered by a small additional load. Most wind slabs are on northern sides of ridges and saddles. During the day, the sun will slightly crust the snow cover on southern slopes, somewhat increasing the chance of spontaneous slab avalanches on steep slopes. At night and in the morning, when snow freezes, danger is lower.
Snow conditions
Snow that fell at the end of the week is slowly settling and transforming, faster on sun-exposed slopes under solar influence. Snowpack is still mostly soft and loose in gullies, thin crust has formed in places on sun-exposed slopes, especially in mid-elevations. Many wind slabs, mainly on northern and western sides of ridges and saddles.
Forecast weather development
Today mostly clear. Freezing level rising above 1500 m a.s.l. Weak, locally moderate northeast wind blowing. Tomorrow mostly clear. Freezing level rising to around 2600 m a.s.l. Mostly weak westerly to southwesterly wind. Friday and Saturday partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness. Weak wind of variable direction. Slightly cooling, freezing level dropping below 1500 m a.s.l. Sunday mostly cloudy in Julian Alps and western Karawanks, afternoon light precipitation starting in western and southern Julians and hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska. Snow line expected between 1000 and 1300 m a.s.l. South to southwesterly wind strengthening. Monday morning precipitation intensifying in west and spreading into interior of Slovenia.
Trend in snow conditions
Snowpack will slowly settle and transform. Distinct daily variation in avalanche release danger. Under solar influence, danger on sun-exposed slopes higher midday and afternoon, lower in morning and partly forenoon. In gullies snow poorly metamorphosed due to dry air, so wind slabs there remain dangerous. On sun-exposed slopes and in mid-elevations, surface crust strengthening. Avalanche conditions little change first three days, then avalanche danger slightly decreasing due to somewhat cooler weather and increased cloudiness.
Next issue: Saturday, 9. 2. 2019
Source: ARSO