6.03.2023
General danger level - Monday, 6 March 2023
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab, wet snow, new snow
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above about 1700 m is MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. Steeper slopes with wind slab are dangerous, where slab avalanches can be triggered. Wind-exposed locations are scoured to old, frozen crust, so there is a risk of gliding.
Snow conditions
Today there were snow showers in places, up to a few cm of snow fell. The snow that fell last week has, under the influence of sun and higher temperatures at the end of the week, already somewhat transformed and better bonded to the older base. Under the top snow layer there is surface hoar in places, which can represent a weak layer. The older base, where there is no new snow, is hard and icy. There are many wind slabs in the high mountains, new smaller slabs have formed. The snow cover depth is quite uneven, with considerably less snow on sun-facing slopes than on shade-facing ones.
Forecast weather development
Today, on Monday, mostly cloudy and foggy weather, occasional light to moderate snowfall. Moderate southwest wind blowing. Temperature at 1500 m around -2, at 2500 m around -8 °C. On Tuesday mostly cloudy and foggy, in the afternoon cloud cover breaking up in places, still occasional snowfall. On Wednesday also cloudy, occasional light snowfall possible. On Thursday it will warm up considerably, the 0 °C isotherm will rise to 2000 m altitude. On Friday it will be a bit warmer.
Tendency of snow conditions
By Tuesday evening 10-20 cm of snow will fall in the mountains, in the western and southern parts of the Julian Alps even more, up to 40 cm. Especially in the Julian Alps area, loose snow avalanches may occur. Moderate southwest wind will mainly transport snow on exposed locations. On Wednesday the westerly wind will strengthen somewhat. On Thursday and Friday it will warm up considerably, so the danger of wet snow avalanches will increase and above about 1700 m will be CONSIDERABLE, level 3.
Next issue: Thursday, 9 March 2023
Source: ARSO