6.04.2021
The danger is 2nd degree on the European five-point scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: new snow, wind-blown snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently mostly LOW, 1st degree, but it will increase during the day due to new and wind-blown snow and above around 1500 m it will be MODERATE, 2nd degree. Steeper slopes will be more dangerous, where old snow cover is still present, especially spots with wind-blown snow, mainly on the southern sides of ridges and saddles. There you can trigger a small slab avalanche even under minor loading. In steep gullies and couloirs, small slides of loose and dry snow may occur. Wind-scoured areas are hard and icy, hence slip risk.
Snow conditions
In the past days it was relatively cold in the mountains, the snowpack has frozen through to depth. Today the polar front reached us, snowing since early morning, 5 to 20 cm snow has fallen, most in the area of eastern Karavanks and on Pohorje. In between, graupel and snow grains fell in places. New snow due to low air temperature is light and loose and has bonded poorly to the snow base, but there is relatively little of it. A strengthened north wind has begun blowing, building new drifts, slabs and cornices on southern slopes. The snowpack is mostly stable, but areas with wind-blown snow are particularly dangerous. Wind-scoured spots are icy, so slipping is still dangerous.
Expected weather development
Snowfall will gradually weaken from the north during forenoon and cease, in the south only in the afternoon. Most snow will fall in the belt from Trnovski Forest to Snežnik, locally even more than 30 cm. In northern mountain ranges the total snow amount will be significantly less, mostly 10 to 20 cm. Strengthened north wind will blow, building drifts. Late forenoon or around noon precipitation will cease, partial clearing, snow showers forming. Temperature at 1500 m around -8, at 2500 m around -14 °C. On Wednesday initially mostly clear, during day partly clear with variable cloudiness, short-lived snow showers forming, some summits occasionally in clouds. Moderate to strengthened northwester will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around -6, at 2500 m around -15 °C. On Thursday partly clear, mainly in north occasional increased mid-level cloudiness. Mainly in morning strengthened northwester. Slightly warmer. Midday at 1500 m around -3, at 2500 m around -11 °C.
Trend in snow conditions
In the coming days conditions in mountains will be winter-like. Fresh snowpack due to cold weather will remain mostly poorly transformed, only on pronounced northerly aspects new snow will settle somewhat during day. Occasionally strengthened wind will mainly at exposed spots still transport new snow. Avalanche danger above sea level around 1500 m will remain MODERATE, 2nd degree. Many icy spots too, so still dangerous for slipping.
Next bulletin: Wednesday, 7. 4. 2021
Source: ARSO