6.05.2019
Danger is 3rd degree on the European 5-point scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: weak layers, wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger in the high mountains above about 1800 m is CONSIDERABLE, 3rd degree, lower down mostly LOW, 1st degree. The danger has increased due to NEW SNOW. From steep slopes, individual dry loose snow avalanches can release, and with minor loading, especially in places with wind slab, you can trigger slab avalanches.
Snow conditions
At the end of the week it snowed in the mountains, up to about 50 cm of snow fell, most in the high Julian Alps. It snowed on a hard or crusted base, so there is a weak layer under the new snow. Due to strong wind, numerous wind drifts formed. The new snow is soft and light, due to low temperatures also dry. Even lower down, the old snow cover is covered with a thin layer of new snow or new snow covers bare ground.
Expected weather development
Today mostly cloudy at first, clearing in the afternoon. Moderate to strong northerly wind blowing, slowly weakening in the afternoon. Temperature below zero. Tomorrow mostly clear at first, then partly cloudy during the day with variable cloudiness. Occasionally foggy in places. Weak westerly winds. Slightly warmer than today, zero at about 2000 m. On Wednesday partly clear at first, then gradually more cloudiness from the west. Towards evening, minor precipitation will begin in the western Julian Alps. Freezing level at about 2600 m. Westerly wind strengthening. On Thursday mostly cloudy and foggy with occasional precipitation. Snow line at about 1800 m. Moderate westerly wind.
Tendency of snow conditions
The new snow will settle and transform faster in the coming days due to warming and partly sunny weather, so avalanche danger will gradually decrease. On days with sunny weather, snow will melt during the day and refreeze at night. Therefore, from steeper southern slopes from late morning to late afternoon, wet newer snow avalanches may release, which will slide over the weak bottom layer. Wind slab areas will also be dangerous. The snowpack will be more stable in the morning and early afternoon hours. In shady locations, avalanche conditions will change more slowly.
Next issue: Wednesday, 8. 5. 2019
Source: ARSO