7.01.2022
General avalanche danger level - Friday, 7 January 2022
The danger is level 3 on the European 5-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE, level 3 above about 1300 m, and MODERATE, level 2, lower down. Steep southern slopes are particularly dangerous, where there is a lot of wind-blown snow that can release even with small loads. In the high mountains, wind slab is also present on northern slopes, as it initially snowed with strong southwesterly winds. Due to the large amount of light snow, special caution is needed especially in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, where dry snow slab avalanches are still possible today. Wind-exposed locations are heavily scoured, even down to the old, partly icy base, so there is a risk of slipping there. Conditions are demanding.
Snow conditions
One day after the snowfall, the snowpack is still mostly soft and powdery, only slightly settled. On distinctly sun-exposed locations below about 1200 m, the snow on top has already slightly crusted and frozen overnight. A thin crust has formed. In the high mountains yesterday a moderate northerly wind was still blowing, creating new snow deposits to a lesser extent. The most unprocessed snow is in the Julian Alps from 30 to even 100 cm, depending mainly on altitude, considerably more snow fell in the western part. Elsewhere in the hills and mountains, the fresh snow cover is 20 to about 50 cm high, on Pohorje and in the eastern Karawanks even less. Above about 1800 m there is a pronounced weak layer under the new snow, lower down it is less pronounced. The snow is heavily wind-packed, there are many drifts and completely scoured areas where the surface is hard and icy.
Forecast weather development
Today it will be mostly clear, especially along the border with Austria there will also be some low cloud. Mostly light easterly winds will blow. It will be cold. Temperature at 1500 m around -7, at 2500 m around -10 °C. On Saturday it will gradually cloud over towards morning. It will be medium and high cloud. In the morning and midday there will still be occasional increased cloudiness from which a snowflake may fall. In the afternoon it will clear up. In the morning and forenoon light, in the afternoon moderate northerly winds. Temperature at 1500 m around -5, at 2500 m around -12 °C. On Sunday it will be cloudy, higher peaks also in fog. There will be light snowfall at times. Initially light southwesterly winds, in the afternoon moderate northerly winds, which will strengthen overnight to Monday. At the beginning of next week cold and windy weather will prevail, without significant precipitation.
Trend in snow conditions
Avalanche conditions will not change much in the coming days due to cold weather. Today, Saturday and initially Sunday too, winds will be lighter and little snow transport by wind. Conditions will be potentially dangerous, as there will be many slabs that can release quickly especially in the high mountains even under minor load, spontaneous slab avalanches from sufficiently steep slopes will also be possible. Below about 1300 m the risk will nevertheless be lower. The snow will hardly settle and transform significantly by the beginning of next week. On Sunday about 5 cm of new snow is expected. At the beginning of next week a strengthened northeast wind will blow, creating new slabs.
Next issue: Monday, 10 January 2022
Source: ARSO