7.02.2019
Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind-drifted snow, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger assessment
Avalanche danger in mountains above about 1400 m above sea level is CONSIDERABLE, level 3, lower down MODERATE, level 2. Especially dangerous are places with wind-drifted snow on steeper slopes, where an avalanche can be triggered with a small additional load on the snow cover. Most wind slabs are on the northern sides of ridges and saddles. During the day, the sun on southern slopes will consolidate the snow cover somewhat, which may slightly increase the possibility of spontaneous slab avalanches from steep slopes. At night and in the morning, when the snow refreezes, the danger is lower.
Snow conditions
The snow that fell at the end of the week is slowly settling and transforming, faster on sun-exposed slopes under the influence of the sun. The snow cover is still mostly soft and powdery in shady areas, thin crusts have already formed in places on sun-exposed slopes, especially in the mid-mountains, and crusts are also present in places on wind-exposed locations. There are many wind slabs, especially on the northern and western sides of ridges and saddles.
Forecast weather development
Today mostly clear. Freezing level will rise above 2700 m above sea level. Mostly weak westerly to southwesterly wind. On Friday and Saturday partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness. Weak wind of variable direction. It will cool slightly, freezing level will drop below 1500 m above sea level. On Sunday in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks mostly cloudy, in the morning small precipitation will start appearing in the western and southern Julian Alps and in the hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska. Snow line expected between 1000 and 1300 m above sea level. Southerly to southwesterly wind will strengthen. In the night to Monday, precipitation will intensify in the west and spread over all of Slovenia. Snow line will drop to lowlands in many places.
Trend in snow conditions
The snow cover will slowly settle and transform. There will be a pronounced daily variation in avalanche release danger. Under the influence of the sun, danger on sun-exposed slopes will be higher midday and in the afternoon, lower in the morning and partly in the forenoon. In shady areas, snow will transform poorly because the air will be dry, so wind slabs there will remain dangerous. Surface crust will strengthen on sun-exposed slopes and in mid-mountains. Avalanche danger will decrease slightly due to slightly cooler weather on Friday and will be mostly MODERATE, level 2, but in the night to Monday and on Monday it will INCREASE again due to new precipitation.
Next issue: Monday, 11.2.2019
Source: ARSO