7.02.2020
The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Danger pattern: Cold weather, poorly bonded fresh snow with wind
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above about 1800 m is MODERATE, level 2, lower down mostly LOW, level 1. South-facing slopes are particularly hazardous, where at wind-loaded spots you can trigger mainly small slab avalanches even under minor load. Where new snow is scoured, there is high DANGER OF SLIDES on icy base.
Snow conditions
On Wednesday a strong northerly wind blew, weakening on Thursday. The wind transported snow and on south sides of ridges and saddles built dunes and drifts, often forming a crust due to wind. On exposed locations the wind scoured snow down to the firm base, there are also many icy surfaces, which due to lower temperatures occur even in the mid-mountains.
Forecast weather evolution
Today and tomorrow mostly clear, only on Pohorje more cloud this morning and forenoon today and tomorrow. Today still light wind, moderate in high mountains from northerly directions. Tomorrow light southwesterly, strengthening somewhat in the afternoon. At midday around 2°C at 1500 m, around -2°C at 2500 m. Sunday slight clouding, but summits mostly free of clouds. Towards evening clouding in the foothills of the Julian Alps and southern Julian Alps. Initially light wind, afternoon moderate to strong westerly to southwesterly. At 1500 m from -2 to 2°C, at 2500 m around -3°C. Monday cloudy and foggy with precipitation, less in eastern mountain groups. Snowfall limit rises to about 1500 m, in the area of eastern Julian Alps snowing lower too. Expected 5 to 20 cm snow. Strong southwesterly wind. At 1500 m around 1°C, at 2500 m around -3°C.
Trend of snow conditions
Due to the influence of sun and higher temperatures, the snowpack will start transforming faster especially on sun-facing slopes. On the most sun-exposed locations snow will become wet during the day, freeze at night. This process will be more pronounced below about 2000 m. On Monday due to strong wind and snowfall, drifts and slabs will form again on north and west sides of ridges and saddles. Below 1800 m snow will bond better to the base due to higher temperatures, higher up avalanche danger will increase.
Next bulletin: Monday, 10.2.2020
Source: ARSO