7.04.2021
The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is mostly MODERATE, level 2, above about 1600 m, LOW, level 1, lower down. More dangerous are places with wind-packed snow, mainly on the southern sides of ridges and saddles. There you can trigger a small slab avalanche even under minor load. Wind-scoured places are hard and icy, hence the risk of slipping.
Snow conditions
Yesterday cold polar air mass with snowfall also reached the mountains. The amount of precipitation varied considerably, mostly 5 to 20 cm of dry and very loose snow fell. The least snow fell in the area of western Julian Alps. Considerably more snow, even more than 30 cm, fell in the belt from Trnovski gozd to Snežnik with wider surroundings. New snow due to low air temperature is light and powdery and bonded poorly with the snow base, but there is relatively little of it. A strengthened north wind blew, building new drifts, slabs and cornices on southern slopes. The snowpack is mostly stable, more dangerous primarily areas with wind slab. Wind-scoured places are icy, so slipping is still dangerous.
Forecast weather development
Today partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness. Midday and afternoon short-lived snow showers will form, some summits occasionally in clouds. Moderate to strong northwester will blow. Temperature at 1500 m around -6, at 2500 m around -15 °C. Thursday initially mostly clear, during the day occasionally moderately cloudy. Northwesterly wind will gradually weaken. Temperature at 1500 m around -3, at 2500 m around -12 °C. Friday moderately to mostly cloudy, more clear locally in high mountains, some summits in cloudiness. Moderate southwesterly wind will blow. Warmer, at 1500 m midday around 0, at 2500 m around -4 °C.
Tendency of snow conditions
In the next days conditions in mountains will be winterly. Fresh snow cover due to cold weather will remain mostly poorly transformed, only on pronounced north-facing slopes new snow may slightly sinter during the day. Occasionally strengthened wind will mainly transport new snow to exposed places. Avalanche danger above sea level around 1600 m will remain MODERATE, level 2. Many icy places too, so still dangerous for slipping.
Next publication: Friday, 9. 4. 2021
Source: ARSO