Snow conditions 7. 2. 2024

General danger level - Wednesday, 7. 2. 2024
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: drifted snow, wet snow, gliding snow, new snow
Danger pattern: Gliding snow
Danger pattern: Rain

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is LOW, level 1. The snowpack is mostly stable and well bonded. Especially near ridges there are still areas of drifted snow where smaller slab avalanches can be triggered under high load. Locally, especially on shaded slopes, the snowpack is hard and icy, so there is high risk of slipping there. On Friday avalanche danger will increase due to precipitation and be CONSIDERABLE, level 3.

Snow conditions
On sun-facing slopes the snowpack is transforming due to daily melting and nightly freezing, on shade-facing slopes it is consolidating due to high air temperature. In many places on the sunniest slopes the snowpack is interrupted by bare patches. On wind-exposed sites the snowpack is refrozen, icy or absent. Old drifted snow areas are well bonded with other layers, so they can be locally overloaded only with high load.

Forecast weather development
Today in high mountains sunny, in mid-mountains cloudy and foggy. Upper edge of clouds above 2000 m and will rise slightly by evening. Tomorrow, Thursday, weather very similar. Warm, zero isotherm around 2500 m, tomorrow even higher, near 3000 m. Today and tomorrow moderate westerly wind. Tomorrow afternoon southwesterly will strengthen, bringing more humid air. Therefore afternoon clouding over, in the evening rain will start on mountain barriers of Southern Julian Alps and Trnovo Forest. Precipitation will intensify Friday morning and spread across all mountain areas. In Soča Valley snow line near 2000 m, in central Julian Alps, Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps around 1800 m. Until Friday morning main precipitation on Tolmin area and Trnovo Forest, elsewhere little precipitation. Above 2000 m up to 20 cm snow possible in Julian Alps, below that height up to 50 mm rain. Friday daytime precipitation will intensify further and continue at least until Sunday morning. Snow line will likely remain above 1800 m.

Trend in snow conditions
Until Thursday evening snowpack will remain fairly stable. With precipitation in the night to Friday below 2000 m stability of upper snowpack layers will gradually decrease due to rain, which on steep and grassy slopes will slide as wet slab and also loose snow avalanches. Higher up with strong southwesterly some new snow will fall on mostly hard base. Wind will drift new snow into deposits. Avalanche danger will already by Friday morning slightly increase to MODERATE, level 2. Friday daytime due to abundant precipitation avalanche danger will increase to CONSIDERABLE, level 3.

Next publication: Friday, 9. 2. 2024

Source: ARSO