Snow conditions 7. 3. 2024

General danger level - Thursday, 7. 3. 2024
Danger level is 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, new snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger in the western Julian Alps above about 1800 m elevation is CONSIDERABLE, level 3. Elsewhere in our mountains above about 1500 m it is MODERATE, level 2, lower down LOW, level 1. Steep slopes with wind slab are particularly dangerous, where a load can trigger a slab avalanche. Due to cooling (zero isotherm today around 1200 m a.s.l.) wet snow avalanches are unlikely.

Snow conditions
Yesterday it cooled slightly. It snowed in the mountains above about 1400 m. In the Julian Alps there is 10 to 30 cm of new, dry and loose snow on the old base, in the western and central Karawanks up to 20 cm. Further east there was little or almost no precipitation, so old frozen snow cover prevails there. North wind blew, drifting new snow into wind slabs. Wind-exposed locations are therefore hard and partly icy.

Forecast weather development
Today, Thursday, partly clear with variable cloudiness. Smaller local showers will occur. Zero isotherm around 1300 m a.s.l. Weak north winds. Tomorrow mostly cloudy and locally foggy. Occasional light snow possible locally, small amounts of precipitation. Mostly weak south to southwest wind. Zero isotherm around 1000 m a.s.l., in the morning possibly lower. On Saturday precipitation will spread from the west towards the east temporarily and weaken in the afternoon from the west, showers will continue. Snow line will rise from initial 1200 m in the afternoon above 1500 m a.s.l. 10 to 20 cm snow in western and southern Julian Alps, elsewhere up to 10 cm. Moderate southwest wind. On Sunday precipitation will spread again from the west, more abundant than on Saturday. Snow line will rise further and in the afternoon may be around 1800 m a.s.l., in areas with intense precipitation in the west it may snow lower. Southwest wind will strengthen.

Trend in snow conditions
Today sun will somewhat affect snow and avalanche conditions, so in the midday and afternoon the chance for a wet snow avalanche on steep southern slopes below about 1400 m will slightly increase. Higher up, especially above about 1800 m in western and central Julian Alps, main danger are slabs, especially those formed yesterday with north wind. Tomorrow, Friday, cold and cloudy weather will maintain somewhat more stable conditions. On Saturday new snowfall with moderate southwest wind will gradually increase avalanche danger in Julian Alps, elsewhere too little precipitation. On Sunday snowfall more abundant but with higher snow line. In the western part of the mountains more than half a meter of snow possible, in high mountains around a meter, in Kamnik-Savinja Alps and eastern Karawanks 10 to 30 cm. Avalanche danger will INCREASE everywhere in our mountains, most in Julian Alps and western and central Karawanks. New unbonded snow may slide from steep slopes, new slabs will form on northern and eastern slopes, lower down rain will wet the snowpack. CONDITIONS will CHANGE RAPIDLY AND DETERIORATE by the end of the week!

Next issue: Friday, 8. 3. 2024

Source: ARSO