Snow conditions 7. 3. 2025

General avalanche danger level - Friday, 7. 3. 2025
The danger is level 2 on the European 5-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: weak layers, wet snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation

Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above 1700 m is MODERATE, level 2, lower down MINOR, level 1. On sun-exposed slopes, the probability of avalanche release increases during the day. Wet loose snow avalanches can be triggered by natural causes or small additional loads. On shaded slopes, a persistent hard weak layer hidden under dry snow remains; under heavy additional load, a deep and extensive dry slab avalanche can be triggered. On steep slopes, implementing measures to reduce additional load is essential. On areas where snow is wind-packed, the base is hard and icy, with increased risk of slipping.

Snow conditions
Due to the warm weather of recent days, the snowpack on sun-exposed aspects has been rapidly transforming and melting. Pronounced sun-exposed slopes are locally bare up to 1800 m. Snow is sun crusting, the snowpack surface changes in typical spring daily cycles: freezes in the afternoon, begins to soften in the morning, is softest at midday, starts refreezing in the afternoon. On the most pronounced sun-exposed slopes, the frozen crust supports our weight, on less pronounced ones it breaks crust-like. On sun-exposed slopes, the probability of natural and human-triggered avalanches changes markedly during the day: very low in the morning, slightly increased in the forenoon, highest at midday and in the afternoon. Wet loose snow avalanches can release spontaneously or due to a skier pushing off the upper softened layers. On shaded aspects, snow remains dry, light, very favourable for skiing, without skis it punches through. Despite apparently favourable conditions, the snowpack is not very stable: 30-50 cm below the surface, in much of our high mountains, there is a persistent hard weak layer of faceted grains and depth hoar. During movement - skiing or walking - we will mostly not overload these weak layers, but if it happens, the dry slab avalanche can be deep, extensive, large. Such a snowpack structure is not characteristic of normal winters in our mountains, so we, the mountain visitors, have little experience with it. Implementing measures to reduce snowpack loading during crossing is essential, especially on steep slopes, near ridges, at gully outlets, and below walls.

Forecast weather development
Today, Friday, similar warm and sunny weather as in previous days will continue. Saturday will be partly clear, with high-altitude cirrus clouds developing during the day. Weak south to southwest wind will blow. At midday, temperature at 1500 m will be around 6 °C, at 2500 m around -1 °C. Sunday will be mostly clear during the day. Southwest wind will pick up. On Sunday night to Monday, it will cloud over from the west. Monday will be mostly cloudy, with precipitation in the mountains. Snow line high, around 2000 m. In the Julian Alps, up to about 20 cm of new snow possible.

Trend in snow conditions
Until Sunday, the snowpack on sun-exposed aspects will transform similarly to recent days, due to cirrus clouds the spring daily cycle will be slightly less pronounced on Saturday. On shaded aspects, the persistent hard weak layer will remain. Next week, cloudy with precipitation in the mountains, snow line high. In the high mountains of the Julian Alps, up to about 20 cm of new snow possible on Monday.

Next issue: Monday, 10. 3. 2025

Source: ARSO