8.01.2016
RISK ASSESSMENT
Avalanche danger is currently low, level 1.
The snowpack is mostly stable.
Risk is low. No spontaneous avalanching.
SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT SNOWPACK STATE
There is still little snow in the mountains despite occasional snowfall. Some places have hardly seen any snow. Since Monday, up to about 10 cm of snow has fallen in the mountains, which the wind has completely blown into wind slabs on exposed slopes. The snowpack is mostly covered with a thin crust formed by daytime melting and nighttime freezing, only in shaded areas is the snow still soft. Temperatures in the mountains have mostly been below zero, only on Thursday daytime did warmer air begin to flow in, today the freezing level is at around 2000 m above sea level and is still slowly rising.
Snowpack depth is very uneven. In the mountains, it ranges from 0 to about 10 cm of snow, up to about 20 cm in some places in the Julian Alps. There is a lot of wind-drifted snow in sheltered areas, but on wind-exposed spots there is mostly no snow.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
This afternoon and tomorrow morning, it will be partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness near the Austrian border. Elsewhere, it will be cloudy and foggy. Minor precipitation will occur in the western and southern parts of the Julian Alps, somewhat more frequent in the hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska. The snow line tomorrow will be between 1000 and 1500 m above sea level, possibly even higher in some places. Until Saturday evening, no significant amount of snow is expected in the hills.
Until Sunday morning, up to about 50 cm of snow may fall in the high mountains of the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, elsewhere 5 to about 30 cm, least in the east. On Sunday daytime and until Monday morning, it will mostly be dry.
SNOW CONDITIONS TREND
Until tomorrow evening, the snow will only settle and also melt. Then it will snow until early Sunday morning. The new snow will likely bond well to the base up to about 2000 m above sea level, as it will mostly be wet, but higher up it will be drier, so the bond between new and old snow will be poorer. Strengthened southwesterlies will blow the new snow considerably into wind slabs. Avalanche risk will likely increase to level 3 by Sunday morning, especially in the Julian Alps, western Karawanks, and also in the western part of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps. Steeper slopes and areas with wind-drifted snow will become dangerous. Numerous small new snow slab avalanches may release spontaneously from steep slopes.
Source: ARSO