8.02.2021
The danger is level 4 on the European five-level scale - HIGH.
Main problem: new snow, wet snow
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, above about 1900 m above sea level, is HIGH, level 4, lower down and elsewhere CONSIDERABLE, level 3. In the high mountains, due to the large amount of new snow, numerous slopes with moderate inclination are dangerous, especially the northern slopes where the strong south wind has deposited snow. Medium to large dry snow avalanches are expected. Lower down, the snow cover is wet and in many places saturated to the ground, especially on steep slopes and gullies, wet snow avalanches and gliding avalanches will continue to release.
Snow conditions
Yesterday, there was heavy snowfall in the high mountains above about 2000 m, and rain lower down. In the high mountains of the Julian Alps, 50 cm to even 130 cm of snow fell. It snowed at a temperature slightly below freezing, so the snow is relatively moist. A strong wind from southerly directions also blew, transporting snow and building new cornices, wind slabs, and slabs on the northern sides of ridges and saddles. The snow line slowly descended. Below 1800 m, the snow is very wet and has settled and melted faster in the past days. Numerous wet snow avalanches occurred. Today, the snow line has already dropped to about 1000 m in some places. In the mid-mountains, about 10 cm of southerly snow also fell.
Forecast weather development
Today it will be mostly cloudy and foggy. Occasional precipitation will continue, and local showers will appear in the afternoon. The snow line will be between 700 and 1200 m, descending in the afternoon. In the morning, a moderate southerly to southwesterly wind will still blow, weakening during the day. Temperature at 1500 m will be around -2, at 2500 m around -8 °C. On Tuesday, it will be mostly cloudy and foggy. Precipitation will continue mainly in the morning and forenoon, temporarily weakening in the afternoon. The snow line will initially be below 1000 m, rising slightly in the afternoon. A moderate southwesterly wind will blow. At 1500 m around 0, at 2500 m around -5 °C. On Wednesday, there will be heavy snowfall again in the mid-mountains and high mountains. A moderate to strong southwesterly wind will blow. At 1500 m around 1, at 2500 m around -5 °C. On Thursday, snowfall will stop, and it will cool significantly.
Trend in snow conditions
In the mountains, 40 to even 80 cm of snow will fall by midweek, less snow in the mid-mountains where it will be quite wet. During snowfall, a southwesterly wind will blow, building new snow deposits. Conditions will be particularly demanding in the high mountains. Due to snow accumulation, the avalanche danger in the high Julian Alps will remain HIGH, level 4, even in the coming days until midweek inclusive, lower down and elsewhere MODERATE, level 3.
Next issue: Thursday, 11.2.2021
Source: ARSO