8.03.2019
Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wind slab, weak layers, new snow
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is primarily in the high mountains of the western and central Julian Alps due to new snow CONSIDERABLE, level 3, elsewhere LOW to MODERATE (1-2), depending on the amount of snow. In the high mountains of the western and central Julians, a new snow avalanche can be triggered on steeper slopes, as it snowed mostly on a crusty and hard base. There is a lot of wind-blown snow, so northern and eastern slopes are more dangerous. Lower down it rained, and in the central and eastern parts of our mountains there were no precipitations at all, so avalanche conditions have not changed. Especially in the high mountains, primarily on wind-exposed locations, there is DANGER OF SLIDES.
Snow conditions
New snow is light and soft, due to the strong southwesterly it is quite drifted, new slabs have formed on the northern and eastern sides of ridges and saddles. On wind-exposed spots, the new snow is drifted even to the hard and partly icy base. Lower down, where it rained, the snow has settled, and on steep slopes there a wet snow avalanche can be triggered. In the central and eastern Karawanks and in the Kamnik-Savinja Alps there were no significant precipitations, so there is only the old snow cover, partly covered with a few centimeters of new snow. The snow cover there is hard or somewhat softened and well transformed.
Forecast weather development
Today partly clear with variable cloudiness, some short-term shower may form. Summits may occasionally be in clouds. Freezing level at around 1800 m ASL. Moderate southwesterly will blow, weakening in the afternoon. Tomorrow moderately to mostly cloudy and without significant precipitations. Southwesterly will strengthen during the day. Freezing level will rise above 2000 m in the afternoon. On Sunday moderately to mostly cloudy and a bit warmer. Southwesterly will still blow. In the evening and night to Monday precipitations will start to appear, which will weaken during Monday daytime. It will cool down, the snow line will gradually drop to around 500 m ASL on Monday.
Tendency of snow conditions
In most of our mountains, avalanche conditions will not change much. On sun-exposed locations, snow will soften somewhat during the day and refreeze at night. In areas with new snow in the west, the new snow will slowly settle and transform. The weak layer between old and new snow will remain, so slabs on steeper slopes will be dangerous, where a slab avalanche can be triggered under snowpack load. Gradual warming until Sunday will somewhat accelerate the transformation of new snow, but at the same time snow will therefore be especially on shady slopes more unstable during the day.
Next issue: Monday, 11. 3. 2019
Source: ARSO