8.05.2019
The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: weak layers, wind-packed snow
Danger pattern: Springtime situation
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is MODERATE, level 2, in the high mountains above about 1800 m above sea level, and mostly LOW, level 1, lower down. Steep slopes and areas with wind-packed snow are dangerous, where with greater load on the snowpack you can trigger primarily wind slab avalanches. From sufficiently steep slopes, individual smaller spontaneous wind slab avalanches are still possible. Conditions will change today and tomorrow due to precipitation.
Snow conditions
The snowpack is mostly soft, in the high mountains above about 1800 m the snow is dry. Wind-exposed areas are scoured, there are many wind drifts and slabs. Lower down, below about 1800 m, where only a little new snow fell at the end of the week, the snow is mostly hard or partially refrozen, with a thin layer of newer soft snow on it.
Forecast weather development
Today in the Julian Alps and the western and central Karawanks it will be mostly cloudy and locally foggy. Most of the day will be dry. A strong southwesterly wind will blow. The freezing level will be above about 1800 m above sea level. Tomorrow it will be cloudy and foggy. Precipitation will spread from the west also over the Pohorje and eastern Karawanks. The snow line will mostly be above about 1600 m above sea level. In the afternoon, precipitation will weaken from the west, but local showers will still occur. The southwesterly wind will weaken and turn to northwesterly in the afternoon. On Friday it will be partly clear at first, then in the afternoon variable cloudiness and occasionally foggy with local showers. The wind will be light, during the day a southwesterly wind will start blowing. The freezing level will be at about 2500 m above sea level.
Trend in snow conditions
The snowpack will settle and transform due to slightly warmer air mass. Overnight and tomorrow it will snow again above about 1600 m. In the area of the Julian Alps and western and central Karawanks, about 20 to 30 cm of snow is expected, which will initially be mostly wet and will bond well with the soft base. Therefore, we do not expect the avalanche danger to increase significantly. Spontaneous release of smaller new snow avalanches from steep slopes will become more likely again. Lower down, the snow will melt.
Next issue: Friday, 10.5.2019
Source: ARSO