8.05.2020
The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: favorable conditions, wet snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is initially LOW everywhere. During the day, on sun-exposed slopes above sea level around 1900 m, it increases and is MODERATE, level 2. Below sea level around 1900 m there is little snow, so the danger there is mostly LOW. Especially on sunny slopes, from mid-morning onwards under greater load on the snowpack, we can trigger an avalanche, and from steep slopes in the high mountains an avalanche can also release spontaneously.
Snow conditions
Since the beginning of the week it has warmed up again. We have a typical spring snowpack condition. The snow is mostly well transformed. It freezes overnight and is therefore hard in the morning, sometimes icy, softens during the day, especially on sunlit slopes, but in shade it can remain hard especially in the high mountains. In the mid-mountains the snowpack has locally become soaked to the ground and there a slab avalanche is possible if the slope is sufficiently steep and especially grassy.
Forecast weather development
Today mostly clear. Wind light, temperatures above freezing even at the highest summits. Tomorrow morning moderately to mostly cloudy, cloud base above summits. Towards noon or afternoon clearing. Wind light, still warm. Sunday fairly sunny. In the afternoon clouds will begin to build along ridges and summits of the western and southern Julian Alps. Monday becoming cloudy. Precipitation will begin in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks already in the morning, then temporarily elsewhere. Snow line will drop below 2500 m above sea level in the afternoon. Wind will pick up somewhat. Tuesday cloudy and locally foggy, occasional light precipitation, more frequent in southern and southwestern Slovenia. Snow line will drop below 1500 m above sea level. After Tuesday, somewhat more variable weather with possibility of afternoon showers on some days.
Trend of snow conditions
Snow will freeze overnight, but soften during the day. Avalanche conditions will not change much until Monday. Some new snow will fall at the start of the week. At elevations with consolidated snowpack, new snow can slide from steep slopes especially in the Julian Alps and western and central Karawanks. Elsewhere there will be too little. Avalanche danger will thus slightly INCREASE.
Next issue: Monday, 11. 5. 2020
Source: ARSO