Snow conditions 8. 3. 2024

General avalanche danger level - Friday, 8. 3. 2024
The danger is level 2 on the European 5-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab
Danger pattern: Snow-covered south-facing slopes
Danger pattern: Rain

Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is MODERATE, level 2, above about 1500 m, and LOW, level 1, lower down. Steep slopes with wind slab are particularly dangerous, where a slab avalanche may be triggered by a load. The stability of the snowpack is very variable, generally poorer in the Julian Alps and Western Karawanks. It also varies greatly with altitude, slope angle and aspect. Snow conditions currently require a lot of attention and adaptability, while weather conditions are and will remain unfavourable for mountain trips until Monday. Already tomorrow, Saturday, the danger will increase to CONSIDERABLE, level 3.

Snow conditions
In the past night, 10 to 20 cm of snow fell above 1000 m. Snow fell with light wind, so except at the most wind-exposed spots it remained light and did not increase the likelihood of avalanche release. In the shady aspects of the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, new snow fell on the soft snowpack base from last week, which locally also contains faceted crystals. On sunny aspects, snow fell on a thin melt-freeze crust. Further east, snow fell on a frozen snowpack base.

Forecast weather development
Until Monday, it will be cloudy and foggy in the mountains with occasional precipitation. Today it will snow lightly above about 500 m, but the snow line will rise to 1000 m by evening, and tomorrow, Saturday midday, already to 1500 m. By Sunday morning, 10-20 cm of snow will fall above 1500 m in the Western and Southern Julian Alps, and up to 10 cm in other ranges. Already today, the southwesterly wind will start to strengthen, mainly transporting snow from last night and freshly fallen snow in the high mountains. On Saturday, the wind in the high mountains will exceed 50 km/h, and on Sunday it will be even stronger. On Sunday it will be cloudy and foggy with occasional light precipitation, snowing above 1800 m. In the afternoon, precipitation will intensify from the west, a strong southwesterly wind will blow and the snow line will rise above 2000 m; there up to 30-50 cm of snow may fall.

Tendency of snow conditions
To the areas of wind slab built by the northerly wind on Wednesday, new avalanche threats will be added already tomorrow, Saturday, mainly in the Julian Alps. The strengthened southwesterly wind will deposit existing poorly bonded snow and newly fallen snow into new slabs that are unlikely to bond well to the base. Warming with rain will destabilise the snowpack on Saturday in the Julian Alps, and on Sunday elsewhere too, so wet snow avalanches may release spontaneously below the snow line. Above the snow line there will be a lot of poorly bonded new snow due to fresh snowfall, where dry snow avalanches may release mainly on steep slopes.

Next issue: Monday, 11. 3. 2024

Source: ARSO