9.01.2023
General avalanche danger level - Monday, 9. 1. 2023
The danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: new snow, wind-drifted snow, weak layers
Danger pattern: cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is INCREASING due to precipitation. In the high mountains above about 1500 m, 20 to 60 cm of snow has fallen, considerably less in the eastern part of the mountains, only up to 10 cm, but it is still snowing and the snow line is lowering. Due to strong winds there are many wind slabs and cornices, ridges are almost completely scoured. Dangerous are places with wind-drifted snow, under the new snow above about 1800 m there is a weak layer. Lower down the snow has settled or was wet and is better bonded to the base. Danger is mostly CONSIDERABLE, level 3, above about 1800 m, currently LOW, level 1, lower down. You can trigger a snow slab avalanche on steep and moderately steep slopes mainly at places with wind-drifted snow, smaller and medium-sized loose new snow avalanches can also release from steep slopes in the high mountains. Even lower down avalanche danger is slowly increasing.
Snow conditions
New snow is dry and light and strongly wind-drifted in the high mountains, lower down wet and soft. Scoured places in the high mountains are hard and icy in places. Snow conditions are still changing due to precipitation and cooling.
Forecast weather development
Today cloudy with precipitation. It will cool, by evening the snow line will drop to about 800 m above sea level, sometimes lower. A strengthening northerly wind will blow. On Tuesday night precipitation will subside. On Tuesday it will clear up, latest in the eastern part of the mountains. Occasionally some peaks will be in clouds. Strengthening northerly wind will still blow. Zero isotherm at about 1200 m above sea level. On Wednesday partly clear with occasional increased cloudiness, more in the east. In the high mountains weak to moderate northerly wind, weakening in the afternoon. Slightly warmer. On Thursday night it will cloud over and transiently it will snow in the mountains. Probably 5 to 10 cm of snow can fall. Transiently a moderate northerly wind will blow. On Thursday morning it will clear up, in the afternoon a southwesterly wind will blow.
Trend in snow conditions
Avalanche danger will probably be CONSIDERABLE, level 3, everywhere in the high mountains, lower down it will slightly increase by tomorrow morning to MODERATE, level 2, but only in areas where there was old snow cover. There it will quickly decrease again in the following days to LOW, level 1, while in the high mountains it will remain level 3. Danger will be more persistent due to numerous wind slabs on all sides of ridges and saddles, and also due to the weak layer that will be under the new snow. Temperature will indeed remain below zero above about 1800 m until Friday, so the new snow will transform and settle only slowly, occasionally still transported by wind of changing direction. Precipitation on Thursday night will not affect avalanche conditions much, because there will be too little of it. During this time you can trigger a dry slab avalanche on places with wind-drifted snow on sufficiently steep slopes already with minor loading, from steep slopes individual small loose snow avalanches will be possible. Below about 1800 m danger will be much lower.
Next publication: Tuesday, 10. 1. 2023
Source: ARSO