9.02.2016
ASSESSMENT OF RISK
Avalanche danger is in the high mountains of the western Julian Alps level 4, elsewhere in the high mountains of the Julian Alps level 3, lower down and elsewhere in our mountains mostly level 2.
On Saturday there was still sunny and dry weather, a southwest wind was blowing. The snow hardened on the surface especially in sunny spots, in the shade it remained dry and loose. On Sunday and Monday there were precipitations in most of our mountains, only in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje it was mostly dry. The snow line was mostly between 1200 and 1600 m, only in some alpine valleys it snowed lower. The most precipitations were in the Julian Alps, especially in the west. During snowfall a strong south to southwest wind blew, which drifted the new snow heavily. In the high mountains the snow was dry, lower down it mixed with rain especially on Monday. In the Julian Alps above about 1400 m, 30 to about 80 cm of snow fell. Extensive areas of windpacked snow formed on the northern and eastern sides of ridges and passes.
SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT STATE OF THE SNOWPACK
The snowpack is in the high mountains soft and loose, in the eastern part of our mountains there is little new snow and the old, mostly hard base prevails. Lower down the snow is partly soaked by rain, partly covered with a thinner new soft snow layer. There are many drifts, on wind-exposed spots the new snow is quite drifted, even to the old, hard and icy base.
In the high mountains of the Julian Alps and western Karawanks the snow depth is from 80 to about 150 cm, lower in the west up to about 80 cm. Less snow elsewhere in our mountains. Below about 1500 m there is mostly no snow, except in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks. Snow conditions will change significantly today and tomorrow.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
Today it will be mostly cloudy, except in the east also foggy. In the west there will be minor precipitations, snow line above 1400 m. In the evening precipitations will intensify and at night gradually spread over all of Slovenia, the snow line will drop to about 600 m above sea level by morning, in the forenoon sometimes even lower. Tomorrow afternoon precipitations will cease from the northwest.
Expected to fall in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks from 30 to about 100 cm of snow, the most in the western and central part of the Julian Alps above sea level around 1500 m. In the Kamnik-Savinja Alps there will be 20 to 40 cm of new snow, further east only up to about 20 cm. Initially a strong southwest wind will still blow, tomorrow forenoon a strengthened north wind will blow, which will be strongest in the western and central Karawanks and Kamnik-Savinja Alps. New drifts will form on the southern sides of ridges.
TENDENCY OF SNOW CONDITIONS
The snowpack will be only conditionally unstable in the east, elsewhere quite unstable, especially in the Julian Alps. Today we expect spontaneous release of numerous small and also medium-sized snow avalanches mainly in the high mountains of the Julian Alps, tomorrow also elsewhere except in the eastern Karawanks. Numerous slabs will form. The avalanche risk will decrease only slowly in the second half of the week.
The next report will be issued on WEDNESDAY, 10.2.2016 in the forenoon.
Source: ARSO