9.03.2016
ASSESSMENT OF RISK
Avalanche danger is 4 in the Julian Alps, 3 in the rest of our mountains.
Layers of new snow that fell in the last few days are mostly poorly bonded to each other. Spontaneous avalanching of numerous small and also medium-sized avalanches is expected. Even with minor loading of the snowpack, you can trigger an avalanche. Steep slopes and areas with wind-packed snow are particularly dangerous.
SNOW CONDITIONS and CURRENT STATE OF THE SNOWPACK
From Monday morning to this morning, 20 to about 70 cm of snow fell in the Julian Alps and western Karawanks, the most in the Julian Alps above about 1200 m elevation. Dry, poorly bonded snow avalanches occurred. Elsewhere in our mountains, there was much less precipitation, only up to about 10 cm of new snow. Temperature during snowfall was below zero, above about 1100 m it was cold, so the snow was dry. During snowfall, it settled somewhat due to its own weight. Wind created wind slabs and built cornices.
In the Julian Alps and western Karawanks at 2500 m there is 360 to about 430 cm of snow, at 1500 m 250 to about 350 cm, at 1000 m 40 to about 70 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains at 1500 m 100 to about 160 cm of snow, less towards the east. Significant snow cover starts at about 600 m elevation. Snow is light and soft and sinks deeply. There are many wind slabs and cornices. On wind-exposed locations, snow is quite wind-scoured.
FORECAST WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
Today cloudy, in the afternoon cloud cover will thin in the high mountains. Weak to moderate south to east wind will blow. Freezing level below 1000 m above sea level.
Tomorrow initially mostly clear, during the day cloudiness will slowly increase from the southeast. This will be a cloud layer with base high above the summits, initially clouds thin and translucent. Towards noon, some shallow stratiform clouds may form on slopes. Moderate east to northeast wind will blow. Freezing level will rise to about 1400 m elevation.
Overnight to Friday cloudiness will increase, Friday morning light snow possible locally. But the amount of precipitation will be very small. Wind will strengthen somewhat more.
TREND IN SNOW CONDITIONS
The snowpack will settle slowly, but due to low temperatures and cloudy weather, it will hardly transform today. Tomorrow snow will wet under the influence of sun and slightly higher daytime temperatures on sun-exposed aspects mainly up to about 1800 m elevation, higher up and in shade it will remain dry. Overnight it will freeze, crust will form. Wind will transport snow and create new wind slabs especially on western and southern sides of ridges and passes.
The snowpack will slowly stabilize somewhat. Spontaneous avalanching will gradually decrease, but due to low temperatures the snowpack will remain potentially quite unstable especially in the high mountains. Below about 1500 m, mainly on sun-exposed aspects, snow will transform faster and avalanche danger will decrease there more quickly.
Next report will be issued on FRIDAY, 11.3.2016 in the afternoon.
Source: ARSO