9.03.2018
General danger level - Friday, 9. 3. 2018
Danger is level 3 on the European five-level scale - CONSIDERABLE.
Main problem: wet snow, weak layers
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is currently mostly MODERATE, level 2, but during the day due to solar radiation it INCREASES especially on sun-exposed slopes. Steep slopes and areas with wind-drifted snow are particularly dangerous. There, with greater load on the snowpack, you can trigger an avalanche. A cornice may also collapse. Due to warming and sunny weather, the danger increases midday and in the afternoon. From steep grassy slopes, individual ground avalanches can also release mainly midday and afternoon, also in lower elevations where the somewhat thinner snowpack due to warming is soaked to the ground.
Snow conditions
Relatively sunny and warm weather has accelerated the settling and transformation of the snowpack. Snow freezes overnight in the mountains, in lower areas only in places with calm and clear weather. Snow is still mostly soft in shady areas higher up. Elsewhere, snow is mostly crusty, in lower areas also soft and wet. In the hills and lower mountains, the snowpack has locally soaked through to the ground. There are many slabs and cornices that slide or collapse faster with warming.
Forecast weather development
Today it will be fairly sunny, with more clouds in the area of western and southern Julian Alps and in the hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska. There will also be quite a bit of low cloud. A moderate westerly to southwesterly wind will blow. In the afternoon, light precipitation is not excluded mainly in Posočje. Freezing level at 1400 to 1800 m above sea level, in the afternoon 1600 to 2000 m, higher in the east. Tomorrow partly clear on Pohorje and eastern Karawanks, but there too clouds may start forming along ridges and summits. Elsewhere cloudy and foggy. In Julian Alps, western Karawanks, and hills of northern Primorska and Notranjska, precipitation will occur, elsewhere mostly dry. Snow line between 1200 and 1500 m above sea level. Westerly to southwesterly wind will strengthen. Freezing level between 1600 and 2200 m, higher in the east. On Sunday cloudy with precipitation, less in Pohorje and eastern Karawanks than elsewhere. Snow line between 1400 and 1800 m. Strong southwesterly wind. Precipitation will mostly stop overnight to Monday and on Monday occur occasionally mainly in hills of western Slovenia.
Trend in snow conditions
The snowpack will settle quickly and melt and shrink lower down. We expect an increased likelihood of spontaneous sliding of sugary, wet snow from steep slopes, especially on sun-exposed aspects and lower elevations. There, ground avalanches of wet snow on grassy slopes are also possible. Since snow will freeze overnight, this danger will be lower in the morning and partly forenoon. In elevations with rain, snow will get additionally soaked, in high mountains where it will snow, southwesterly wind will form new drifts and cornices. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVOURABLE, great caution is needed especially towards noon and afternoon and in areas with rain. By the start of next week, the snowpack should stabilize somewhat.
Next issue: Monday, 12. 3. 2018
Source: ARSO