9.03.2023
General danger level - Thursday, 9. 3. 2023
Danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wind slab, wet snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after frost
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger above sea level around 1500 m is MODERATE, level 2, lower SMALL, level 1. Steeper slopes and especially gullies are more dangerous, where during thaw spontaneous wet snow avalanches are possible. In the high mountains, new slabs have formed due to strong wind, which you can trigger at individual locations. Wind-exposed locations are scoured to the old, frozen base, so there is a risk of slipping there.
Snow conditions
In the mountains, it has snowed occasionally in the past days, quantities are quite varied. Most snow from 10 to 30 cm fell in the area of the Julians, locally in the area of the Bohinj-Tolmin Mountains ridge even more. Elsewhere from 5 to 15 cm of snow fell, near the border with Austria only a few centimeters. In the night to Thursday, the snow line rose above 1700 m. Today (Thursday) during the day it warmed up considerably, the zero isotherm rose to sea level around 2100 m. New snow has refrozen in many places and become unstable. In the high mountains, during snowfall a moderate to strong west to southwest wind blew, which transported fresh snow and on eastern sides built new snow deposits. The height of the snow cover is quite uneven, on sun-facing sides there is considerably less snow than on shade-facing sides.
Forecast weather development
Today, Thursday afternoon, it will partly clear up, variable cloudiness will form, some peaks will occasionally be in fog. Westerly winds will continue to weaken. Temperature at 1500 m around 3, at 2500 m around -2 °C. Tomorrow mostly cloudy and foggy, showers will occur. In the afternoon, cloudiness will break up locally. Snow line at sea level between 1500 and 1900 m. Strengthened southwesterly will blow, which will slowly weaken in the afternoon. Overnight to Saturday, passage of a cold front is expected, precipitation will probably not be much. On Saturday morning or forenoon local showers will appear, northwesterly will start blowing, which in the high mountains can be strong. During the day it will clear up, wind will weaken somewhat. It will cool. Temperature at 1500 m around -1, at 2500 m around -7 °C. On Sunday dry, occasionally more medium and high cloudiness. Temperature at 1500 m around -3, at 2500 m around -8 °C.
Tendency of snow conditions
In the next days, it seems there will not be much new snow, in the high mountains up to 5 to maximum 15 cm of snow can fall, in the mid-mountains just a centimeter. Tomorrow at individual locations still expecting small to medium-sized wet snow avalanches, but on Saturday the danger of triggering avalanches below sea level around 2000 m will decrease. In the high mountains, areas with wind slab will still be dangerous. With cooling, icy surfaces will distinctly increase on Saturday and Sunday.
Next issue: Friday, 10. 3. 2023
Source: ARSO