9.04.2018
General avalanche danger level - Monday, 9 April 2018
The danger is level 2 on the European 5-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wet snow
Danger pattern: Spring situation
Risk assessment
The avalanche danger is mostly MODERATE, level 2, slightly increasing during the day due to the influence of the sun on sun-exposed slopes. At night the snow freezes and is more stable, during the day it softens and consequently destabilises on sunny aspects. Avalanches can release on a weak layer or on the surface of the old snow cover. Steep slopes and windpacked snow are particularly dangerous. Below around 1800 m a.s.l. we can expect individual full-depth avalanches especially on steep grassy slopes.
Snow conditions
Over the past week a considerable amount of snow has melted in the mid-mountains. Higher up the snowpack has settled considerably, especially on south-facing slopes wet snow avalanches have released. The condition of the snowpack is quite variable, typical spring-like. It depends on slope aspect, elevation and also on the amount of cloud cover or sun and time of day. The snowpack is frozen in the morning and also hard higher up. During the day it softens, only in shade does it remain mostly hard, in the high mountains there can still be some windpacked, soft snow in gullies.
Forecast weather development
Today it will become cloudy from the west. In the afternoon precipitation will start to appear in the west, but it probably won't reach much further than the Savinja Alps, at least not in any noteworthy quantity. The snow line will initially be around 2200 m, towards evening it will drop below 2000 m. Weak to moderate southerly wind will blow. Precipitation will continue into Tuesday night. Tuesday will be variable, in the western part of our mountains mostly cloudy and occasionally foggy. There will be occasional local precipitation, partly showers, above around 1700 m snow. In the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje it will be mostly dry. Moderate to strong southwesterly will blow. Slightly cooler, freezing level at around 1900 or 2000 m a.s.l. On Wednesday moderately to mostly cloudy, in the Julian Alps occasional minor precipitation with snow line around 1700 m. Weak to moderate southerly to southwesterly wind. On Thursday mostly cloudy with occasional local precipitation, which will be more frequent in the western part of our mountains. On Friday local showers, which will appear mainly in the Julian Alps, western and central Karawanks and in the western part of the Kamnik-Savinja Alps.
Trend in snow conditions
The snowpack will continue to settle and transform, lower down the snow will melt. Because there will be more cloudy weather, the sun will not have as much influence on the snowpack as it did at the end of the week. The snowpack will remain frozen and hard in the high mountains above around 2000 m, lower down it may also remain wet or slushy overnight. In the high mountains of the western Julian Alps up to 30 cm of snow may fall by Thursday, over the rest of the Julian Alps and in the western and central Karawanks 10 to 20 cm, further east presumably only around 5 cm. Due to the local nature of the precipitation, the amounts may also vary on the mentioned areas. Graupel and corn snow possible. Due to the new snow, the danger will INCREASE in the western Julian Alps after Tuesday, when most of the precipitation falls, and will presumably be CONSIDERABLE, level 3. Elsewhere it will remain MODERATE. In the western Julian Alps new snow avalanches may release from steep slopes in the high mountains. New wind slabs will also form.
Next issue: Friday, 13 April 2018
Source: ARSO