9.04.2021
The danger is level 1 on the European five-level scale - LOW.
Main problem: favourable conditions, new snow, drifted snow
Danger pattern: Cooling after warm weather / warming after cold
Risk assessment
Avalanche danger is LOW, level 1. The snowpack is well bonded and generally stable, only exceptionally under heavy load on very steep slopes can a small slab avalanche be triggered. There are many icy patches, hence high risk of slipping.
Snow conditions
After strong cooling, the atmosphere is gradually warming. The old snow base is still mostly refrozen, very hard and stable. On it lies a more or less thin snow cover from previous snowfall, which the wind has significantly reshaped and which varies greatly locally in structure. Wind-exposed areas are scoured to the hard base and icy in places, small slabs are present in some spots, or a wind crust has formed on top. In sheltered and more leeward positions there is still 5 to 20 cm of fresh snow. On Thursday, the snow cover on very sun-exposed spots above has already softened somewhat and refrozen overnight. There is still a high risk of slipping.
Forecast weather development
Today mostly clear, during the day cloud cover will increase mainly in the western and southern Julian Alps, some slopes will be in clouds. Moderate southwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 0, at 2500 m around -4 °C. On Saturday partly clear in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje. Elsewhere variable to mostly cloudy and locally foggy. In the hills of Posočje and Notranjska occasional light precipitation. Moderate southwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 1, at 2500 m around -3°C. On Sunday mostly cloudy and foggy with precipitation, more pronounced in the mountains of western Slovenia. Snow line initially at around 1500 m elevation, rising in the afternoon. We expect more than 40 cm of snow especially in the area of western and southern Julian Alps. Strong southwesterly wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 2, at 2500 m around -2 °C. Similar weather on Monday. Snow line will temporarily rise to around 2000 m elevation. More pronounced precipitation expected mainly in the western Julian Alps.
Trend in snow conditions
Due to warmer weather, snow conditions will start to change today. The snowpack will soften somewhat more especially in the eastern and northern mountain ranges where there will be more sunshine, and refreeze in the night to Saturday. Similar conditions tomorrow. Especially in leeward positions in the high mountains the snow will remain hard and refrozen. With the more pronounced weather change, abundant snowfall will start on Sunday mainly in the western and southern Alps. Initially snow line at around 1500 m elevation, on Monday temporarily rising above 2000 m. Due to greater amount of new snow and wind we expect avalanche danger to GRADUALLY INCREASE. The snowpack will be more unstable in the high mountains where snow falls on a very hard base. During transient warming, wet snow avalanches will most likely occur.
Next issue: Monday, 12. 4. 2021
Source: ARSO