9.05.2016
General danger level - Monday, 9 May 2016
The danger is level 2 on the European five-level scale - MODERATE.
Main problem: wet snow
Hazard pattern: vn10 Spring situation
Risk assessment
The danger in the mountains above about 2000 m above sea level is in the midday and afternoon, when the snow softens due to solar radiation, MODERATE, level 2. From evening to early morning it is LOW, level 1. The risk increases especially on shady slopes, where with greater additional stress, especially in areas with wind-packed snow, you can trigger an avalanche. In the coming days, due to already spring-like temperatures, more cloudiness and some rain, even at altitudes above 2000 m - also at night and at lower altitudes where there is still enough snow, the possibility of gliding avalanches of wet snow on sufficiently steep slopes increases.
Snow conditions
CONDITIONS in the mountains are winter-spring. In recent days it has been variably cloudy and locally some precipitation from local showers and thunderstorms has fallen. Locally in the high mountains above about 1900 m a few cm of snow has fallen. The snow line was mostly at about 2000 m above sea level. At night the snow freezes and is hard, in the morning it softens quickly, in intermediate altitude bands a crust forms in places. In the high mountains, especially on shady slopes, medium-sized slab avalanches of wet snow that was deposited in gullies during the last snowfall detached over the weekend. In the Julian Alps at 2500 m there is 260 to about 325 cm of snow, at 1500 m 30 to about 80 cm. Elsewhere in our mountains there is 10 to about 60 cm of snow. The continuous snow cover starts at quite varying altitudes. In the Julians on shady aspects and plateaus snow is still present below 1400 m, on sunny slopes above about 1700 m. Elsewhere on sunny slopes it is mostly bare up to about 1900 m, on shady slopes snow lies a little lower, down to about 1600 m.
Forecast weather development
On Monday it will initially be mostly clear, midday and afternoon variably cloudy. Especially in the eastern Karawanks and on Pohorje a shower is possible. The wind will turn to southwest. Temperature at 1500 m around 9, at 2500 m around 2 °C. On Tuesday mostly cloudy, occasionally light precipitation. Weak to moderate southwest wind. Temperature at 1500 m around 8, at 2500 m around 3 °C. Until the end of the week cloudy weather with occasional precipitation will prevail in the mountains, for now it seems the most on Thursday in the Julian area. Snow line between 2200 and 2600 m above sea level. The snow line will rise above 3000 m already on Tuesday and drop back to about 2500 m only on Friday.
Trend in snow conditions
The snowpack will settle and transform, melting in lower areas. Initially the snow in the mountains will still freeze at night, but not anymore in cloudy nights mid-week. With daily warming, and mid-week also with rain, the surface layer of snow will become less stable. Initially only the layer of snow that fell during the May Day holidays and at the last weekend will slide in the mountains, later due to water saturation from rain the possibility of gliding avalanches of wet snow on sufficiently steep slopes, including ground avalanches, will increase.
Next issue: Thursday, 12 May 2016
Source: ARSO